Airtel Africa’s performance may be hindered by African currency devaluation, but the underlying constant currency growth is likely to be healthy.
Here’s what to expect from Airtel’s Q3 and how to trade the stock
Core earnings
Revenues are likely to grow 4% quarter-on-quarter, led by higher wireless revenues in India as well as in Africa. On a year-on-year basis, revenues may rise around 6% year-on-year. Net profit for the quarter is seen rising up to 50% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter.
Operating margins are likely to witness marginal expansion due to lower commissioning costs and S&M expenses.
ARPU
ICICI Securities expects Bharti Airtel’s ARPU to grow 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 205, given a better mix with more users converting to 4G from 2G.
Subscriber addition
The overall subscriber addition is expected to be 3.5 million in the third quarter, marginally down from 3.7 million in the second quarter, leading to its India mobile revenue growing 2.4% quarter-on-quarter.
Airtel Africa
Emkay Global sees Africa’s revenue at $1,228 milllion, a decline of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and EBITDA at $604 million on currency devaluation. Africa has crossed the 150 million subscriber mark at the end of December 2023, indicating the addition of 2.3 million subscribers in the reporting period.
How to trade the stock
Analysts said the stock is in a corrective decline move and will be bullish above Rs 1140. “Below the levels of Rs 1140, the price can decline upto 1080 level. On the higher side, the stock has resistance at 1180. Positioning is light ahead of results, At $444 million, the OI is near one year lows and Max call/put stands at 1200/1100. The call writing was seen at 1200 strike,” said Emkay Global.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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