Happy Wednesday, folks. We’re just one day away from Thanksgiving, which means we’re one day away from a full slate of Week 12 NFL action. John Breech is taking the afternoon off to find a suitable turkey for the holiday. Or something like that. So you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the league.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We’ve got Thanksgiving predictions, an Aaron Rodgers update, flex scheduling news and more:
1. Today’s show: Thanksgiving and Black Friday game picks, previews and how to watch them all
Thanksgiving Weekend is especially jam-packed this year, with three games on Turkey Day and, for the first time ever, a Black Friday showdown. The “Pick Six NFL Podcast” crew is gathering around the table (aka their microphones) to break down the full slate of holiday action, previewing and predicting the following contests:
- Packers at Lions (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET): You can also take a look at Doug Clawson’s preview and prediction here.
- Commanders at Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET): Check out Garrett Podell’s preview and prediction right here.
- 49ers at Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET): Tyler Sullivan has picks for 49ers-Seahawks and every game here.
- Dolphins at Jets (Friday, 3 p.m. ET): Don’t miss all of our experts’ picks for every Week 12 game here.
Here’s how to watch every single Thanksgiving game. And catch the full “Pick Six” episode right here.
2. Prisco’s Week 12 Picks: Cowboys dominate, Jaguars take command of division
Pete Prisco went 10-4 in straight-up picks for Week 11. Now he’s back looking to extend the hot streak with predictions for every single Week 12 game. Here’s a sampling:
- Cowboys 32, Commanders 16: The Commanders are coming off a dud last week against the Giants, while Dallas is flying high. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the league. Washington’s offensive line is an issue, which will lead to the Cowboys having a field day with their defensive front. Dak Prescott plays well again. Cowboys roll.
- Jaguars 27, Texans 23: This is for first place in the division, with the Texans owning the Jaguars in recent years, winning 10 of 11 and blowing them out earlier this year. But the Jaguars got back on track last week and Trevor Lawrence played well. That will continue here as the Jaguars take command of the division.
- Eagles 31, Bills 30: The Eagles are playing on a short week after a road victory over the Chiefs on Monday night. The Bills are coming off an impressive victory over the Jets. Josh Allen looked good in that game, and he will in this one. He keeps it close, but the Eagles find a way late.
3. Bold Thanksgiving predictions: Dak Prescott storms into MVP race
In honor of the holiday games, we also made some bold predictions for each of the Thanksgiving contests. First up: a monster day from the Cowboys quarterback, who has a chance to lift Dallas to 8-3 with a home victory over Washington.
Dak Prescott throws five touchdowns to firmly enter the MVP race. The Commanders just allowed undrafted Giants rookie Tommy DeVito to throw three scores in a 31-19 win on Sunday. Do we really think Washington is prepared to turn around and halt America’s Team on a short week on the road? Only three teams are surrendering more yards than Ron Rivera’s Commanders, and Prescott has been on a tear, with 14 TDs and just two picks in his last five starts. He’s also 5-0, with 13 TDs and zero picks, against Washington at home in his career. Look for the ‘Boys to roll over their rivals in the NFC East.
4. Colts cut former All-Pro Shaquille Leonard: Landing spots for the linebacker
Five years after winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Leonard is out in Indianapolis, where he’d recently been vocal about a reduced role. The three-time Pro Bowler, who led the NFL in tackles and forced fumbles in separate seasons, was waived on Tuesday, thanking the Colts and their fans in a goodbye post on social media. Still just 28, Leonard missed all but three games in 2022 due to injury but has recently suggested he’s back to form following a serious back surgery.
Leonard will now go through the waiver process and can be claimed by any team. If a team does claim him, they’d owe him roughly $6 million in base salary for the rest of the season. Leonard is also under contract through 2026 but carries lofty cap hit totals and is owed a base salary of $13.6 million in 2024, $14.8 million in 2025, and $19.1 million in 2026. With that in mind, it seems most likely he’ll clear waivers and then be free to sign a more palatable deal with a team in the NFL after that
So, where might Leonard be headed now? Tyler Sullivan identified four teams that could be looking to add him, including a Steelers linebacker room that has been decimated by injuries. Here’s a look at all four potential landing spots.
5. Playoff picture: Browns, Vikings favored to secure wild cards
Every week through the end of the season, John Breech is compiling SportsLine’s latest simulations to forecast the full postseason picture. Entering Week 12, Cleveland and Minnesota stand out as projected wild-card contenders:
Browns: Despite losing Deshaun Watson for the season, the computer still like the Browns (6-4) to make the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the computer views the Browns as a virtual lock to get to the postseason, giving them an 87.4% chance of making it. The computer is expecting that Cleveland’s historically good defense will play well enough to carry this team to the playoffs
Vikings: Even after losing in Week 11, the Vikings are still a heavy favorite to make the playoffs. The computer is projecting that Minnesota will get the final seed in the NFC and the computer doesn’t think it will be particularly close. The computer has seven NFC teams finishing above .500 this year, including the Vikings, and those will be the only seven to make the playoffs. (The other nine teams are projected to all finish below .500).
6. Extra points: Rodgers still hopeful, Week 13 flex, injury updates
We’ve got some bonus headlines for you right here: