US and Israeli spy chiefs have flown to Qatar for talks on how to extend the current truce in Gaza in exchange for the release of more hostages by Hamas.
The discussions of the CIA director, William Burns, and the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, with the Qatari leadership, are expected to focus on persuading Hamas to begin releasing the men among the remaining hostages.
The ceasefire that began on Friday was originally for four days and to allow for the release of 50 hostages in return for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. An agreement was reached on Monday to extend the deal by another two days, until Wednesday, with Hamas to free 10 hostages for each extra day.
The latest exchange of hostages in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails appeared to be going smoothly on Tuesday night, with hostages on their way out of Gaza by around 1900 local time and a list of 30 prisoners released by Israeli authorities.
Thus far, all those freed have been women and children. It is thought that to extend the truce much beyond Wednesday, Hamas will have to begin freeing some of its adult male hostages. The group considers all Israeli men potential soldiers.
“CIA director Burns and Mossad director Barnea are in Doha for a series of meetings initiated by Qatar’s prime minister to discuss the potential terms of a deal beyond the two-day extension,” a source briefed on the visit said, adding that Egyptian officials were also attending.
Israel’s politicians and military have made clear since the truce began last Friday that they intended to return to military operations in Gaza, including in the south of the strip where up to 2 million people now live.
During a visit to an IDF intelligence unit, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said: “We are committed to completing these missions: freeing all of the hostages, eliminating this terrorist organisation above and below ground and, of course, that Gaza must not return to being what it was, that it will no longer constitute a threat to the state of Israel.”
He again accused Hamas again of using civilians as human shields. “We are seeing something amazing … that the residents, the civilians in Gaza above are protecting all of the terrorists below. They built an underground city to protect themselves and are sacrificing the civilians above.”
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu is reluctant to extend any ceasefire beyond ten days, the maximum stipulated in the original deal signed off by his government. He said 74 hostages had been released so far, including 50 women and children.
Herzi Halevi, the IDF chief of staff, said on Tuesday: “We are preparing for the continuation of the operation to dismantle Hamas. It will take time, these are complex goals, but they are justified beyond measure.”
The IDF plan is to target Khan Younis, where Israel believes Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, is based.
Humanitarian organisations are already warning of dire consequences if intensive fighting starts in the south of Gaza. Bushra Khalidi, a policy lead with Oxfam, said: “A restart of fighting could escalate to unprecedented levels of mass casualties, which have already reached alarming numbers. From what we observe, Israel’s intentions to continue operations in the south are clear and have shown no signs of abating.”
In Israel, there are concerns that patience in Washington is wearing thin. Officials describe a “window of legtimacy” that may be closing.
The US has told Israel it cannot conduct its military operations in the south in the same way as it did in the north, flattening whole neighbourhoods in pursuit of Hamas fighters and hideouts.
A senior US official said the Biden administration was asking Israel to pursue operations in the south in “the most discreet, deliberate, careful, cautious way possible”.
“It is very important that the conduct of the Israeli campaign, when it moves to the south, must be done in a way that is to a maximum extent not designed to produce significant further displacement of persons,” the US official said.
“You cannot have the sort of scale of displacement that took place in the north replicated in the south. It will be beyond disruptive. It will be beyond the capacity of any humanitarian support network, however reinforced, however robust to be able to cope with.”
Biden’s floating the possibility of conditions being placed on US support for Israel have worried many who recognise Israel’s dependence on US diplomatic cover and continued military supplies, even if the suggestion was then explicitly dismissed.
“I think it was totally intentional and totally calibrated … So it was deniable but it sent a very clear message and that message was that we have preferences and we have tools to enforce those preferences and their needs to be greater sensitivity to American advice,” said Jon Alterman, vice president and director of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.
In a further complication for Israel, the IDF revealed that the remains of three soldiers killed on October 7th are now held by Hamas in Gaza. Historically, Israel has sought the return of its dead with the same commitment as to the living.