Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds, predictions: How to bet Serie A relegation battle; Liverpool-Man City

The relegation battle in Serie A is something to behold. As we enter the weekend, only Salernitana look to be in a position where their fate has been sealed. They have 14 points and are nine points behind 17th-place Hellas Verona and safety. Sassuolo sit in 19th with 20 points, which is a better spot than Salernitana’s but still a perilous spot.

Then there are six teams separated by two points in the standings. Lecce have 25 points in 13th place, while Cagliari have 23 points and would go down if the season ended now. Naturally, with a tight race, I wanted to figure out how to bet it, so I ran some simulations earlier this week to see how things could finish.

What I discovered is that, according to my sim, Cagliari is likely to climb out of the bottom three and finish 16th, passing both Udinese and Verona, with Verona, Sassuolo and Salernitana all going down. I immediately went to place bets on Cagliari surviving and Verona going down when I came across my next significant discovery.

No American sportsbooks are currently offering relegation odds on Serie A. Sigh.

Cagliari vs. Salernitana

Date: Saturday, March 9 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

If I can’t bet the outrights of Serie A’s relegation battle, I can bet the matches. The primary reason my simulations have Cagliari getting out of the drop zone? Their schedule down the stretch is slightly easier than those of the teams they’re competing against, including this match. It’s hard to handicap a team’s mentality, but there’s plenty of reason to believe Salernitana understand the futility of their position, and no matter what you do, it’ll impact your play. Meanwhile, Cagliari look at Salernitana and see three possible points that could be all the difference.

And even if we put all that to the side, while Cagilari have been truly awful away from home, they’ve actually been pretty damn decent at home! The side has an xG (expected goal) differential of +2.3 and has picked up 16 points in 13 home matches. Salernitana aren’t good anywhere, but are worse on the road, where they’ve won only once (a 1-0 win over Verona) all season. The Pick: Cagliari (-115)

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Koln

Date: Saturday, March 9 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

The thought process here is similar to our last match. Relegation works differently in Germany, as the two last place teams are guaranteed to drop, while the 16th-place team goes into a playoff against the 3rd-place team in Germany’s second division. Right now, that 16th-place team is Koln, which has very little chance of catching Bochum in 15th and is simply fighting to avoid dropping below Mainz into 17th.

But the metrics suggest it’s likely to happen, because Koln have the second-worst xG differential in the league. They’ve been much worse on the road all season, and this weekend, are facing a Monchengladbach team that’s firmly mid-table but has been much stronger at home all year. Koln have won only once in 12 road matches while being outscored 21-7. The Pick: Borussia Monchengladbach (-120)

Liverpool vs. Manchester City

Date: Sunday, March 10 | Time: 11:45 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

This match won’t decide the Premier League title, but it will seriously impact the outcome. Liverpool enter the weekend in first, one point ahead of Manchester City in second, and two points ahead of an Arsenal team that’s won seven straight Premier League matches by a combined score of 31-3. Losing this match won’t take you out of the race, but it could put you in a serious hole.

What blows my mind a bit is City being favored despite the match being played at Anfield. Liverpool are yet to lose at home in league play, winning 11 and drawing twice. All three of City’s losses in the league have come on the road. I know Liverpool are dealing with injuries, but so are City, and I’ve had concerns about City’s defending for a while. It’s why I bet that little ol’ Copenhagen would score against them at the Etihad in the Champions League earlier this week. I know City were rotating their squad a bit, but even at full strength, this team has managed to keep a clean sheet only three times in its last 10 matches. Maybe that doesn’t seem terrible overall, but when teams like Burnley, Luton Town and Copenhagen (twice) score against you, there’s cause for concern. Due to those concerns, I have a tough time betting on City to get all three points. The Pick: Liverpool or Draw (-150)

Weekend Parlay

We’re sticking with chalk this week, as our four-leg parlay pays +144.

• Bayern Munich (-475)
• Arsenal (-425)
• Real Madrid (-380)
• Bayer Leverkusen (-340)

League Play	43-45	+0.06
Champions League	5-7	-4.31
Overall	48-52	-4.25