At a certain point, you have to be skeptical of the skeptics — the ones who might say this is “lucky” or “unsustainable.”
When the sample size is this vast and the results this consistent, it has to be more than just pixie dust, right?
Friday night’s 3-2 win over the Rangers embodied the Mariners’ motif since Scott Servais came on as manager before the 2016 season: They win one-run games — more often and at a higher percentage than everyone else. And over the past few years, it hasn’t even been close.
Since 2016, the Mariners have won 231 victories by a single run. In second are the Giants with 210, and third are the Brewers with 209.
Moreover, the Mariners also have the highest winning percentage in such games at .570, which bests the Brewers’ (No. 2) mark of .569 and the Giants’ (No. 3) mark of .543.
Obviously, somebody has to be first in these categories, and when one team pulls out the tight ones more than anyone else, it stands to reason they would do so at a high percentage. But if you think they’ve one-upped the field in the one-runners since 2016, you should see what they’ve done since 2021.
I bring up that year because that was the season in which Servais introduced the “fun differential” — a counter to those pointing out that the Mariners had a negative run differential despite being well above .500. They ended up finishing 90-72 while scoring 51 fewer runs than their opponents. The reason for their victorious ways? They won 33 one-run games — the most in MLB and tied for second in league history — and lost just 19.
This trend never really halted. From the ’21 season till now, Seattle has won 109 games by one-run, 17 more than any other team. Their winning percentage in such games over that span is .596, which is .19 points better than second place.
This might be the most notable of the nail-biting seasons, as the M’s are 17-7 in one-runners through just 72 games. They’ve also won 13 of their past 16 one-run contests, which is a huge reason they entered Saturday’s contest with a 6.5 lead in the American League West.
It shouldn’t be a big surprise that the Mariners (42-31) are playing in so many tight games. This is a team that A) is built around pitching and defense, and B) plays in a pitcher’s park. But to so frequently pull out those cuticle crunchers?
“It’s what good teams do. Any time we have those close games, someone comes up with a big hit and our bullpen comes in and shuts the door down,” Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford said. “Everyone doing their job — you can’t ask for anything better.”
A refrain we’ve heard over the years is that these tight victories can be heavily attributed to the Mariners’ lockdown bullpen, which rarely squander leads. That’s certainly been the case in the past … except this year’s squad is 10th in reliever ERA. Good, no doubt. And season ERA doesn’t always tell the tale of bullpen dominance. But the production hasn’t been on the tier that we’ve seen in recent years.
A lot of these narrow wins, frankly, comes down to reps. There is no substitute for regular exposure to pressure, which leads to composure under it.
Servais said as much Friday.
“They get used to it. It’s not a big deal. I think it’s a big deal for everyone in the stands and everyone at home, but our guys are just playing the game,” said the skipper. “It’s familiar. We’re used to being in the two-minute drill.”
These quotes came after Servais repeatedly knocked on the dugout’s wood with a bat as I verbalized his one-run résumé. He’s as aware of the law of averages as anyone out there, and that an offensive slide could lead to a series of close-score skids.
But this is something he regularly discusses with his players. They all know how this team is built, and while a batting bonanza would be welcomed — the Mariners rank 24th in MLB in OPS — a wave of blowout victories aren’t likely on the horizon.
That’s OK. These types of triumphs have been a mainstay for the Mariners for the past nine years, and have become increasingly abundant over the past four. Could be a major asset if they are able to get back to the postseason.
It may seem as if this team is always one run away from a letdown. But with their poise, they may run away from the field.