Bernie’s Redbird Review: Exploring Ideas On How To Improve The Cardinals Offense.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW 

As we’ve noted in recent days, the Cardinals are averaging only 3.95 runs per game this season, a sad little number that ranks 14th among the 15 National League teams and 26th overall.

I think we can agree on this: that’s pitiful.

As a matter of fact, that average of 3.95 runs per game would rank 28th among the 29 St. Louis teams that have taken the field since the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era began in 1996.

Only the 2014 Cardinals came in lower, at 3.8 runs per contest. That was a bad year for offense. MLB must have been using a deadened baseball in 2014. The hitters were definitely subdued.

The mediocre Cardinals’ offense fits into the overall deflation of runs and other offensive barometers. But I can’t give the Redbirds a pass on this – not with all 30 teams playing by the same rules, and using the same supply of baseballs.

It’s all relative. Fourteen major-league teams are averaging 4.47 runs per game this season, and the MLB-wide average is 4.37 runs.

This is about your team’s roster and stable of hitters. The Cardinals simply aren’t keeping up, and it’s hurt them in the standings.

Here’s an example …

* The first-place Brewers have scored five or more runs in 42 games this season and are 34-8.

* The second-place Cardinals have scored five or more runs in 31 games, and they’re 24-7.

The Cardinals have 11 fewer games than Milwaukee in scoring five-plus runs.

And the Birds have 18 fewer games than Milwaukee in scoring six or more runs.

More than any statistic, that gap explains why the Cardinals are looking up to the Brewers. It’s easy to understand why the Brewers are six games up. And if anything the Cardinals are fortunate to have won only seven fewer games than the Brewers.

The Cardinals can hang with the Brewers in a lot of areas, but the Redbirds can’t match the Brewers in scoring runs. Not even close. The Brewers average 4.85 runs per game, which is seventh in the majors. And the Cardinals are down there near the bottom, rolling around with the White Sox, A’s and Marlins in runs per game.

So. That has to change.

How do the Cardinals change it?

1. Do something to improve the performance from the leadoff spot.

The Cardinals are suffering from historically bad offense in the No. 1 lineup spot. And no, I’m not exaggerating here. This season St. Louis leadoff hitters rank 28th among the 30 teams in batting average (.217), 29th in OBP (.276) and 27th in slugging (.338). Their park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) is 23 percent below the league average offensively.

At FanGraphs, the leadoff splits are available from 2002 through the present day. That’s 23 seasons. And since 2002, STL’s No. 1 hitters rank 22nd in batting average, 22nd in slugging, and last in onbase percentage and OPS (.614). When your leadoff guys are getting on base in only 27.6 percent of their plate appearances, the poor percentage stifles the offense. The most important task of a team’s No. 1 hitter is to get on base as often as possible to set up run-scoring opportunities. The primary leadoff hitters used by manager Oli Marmol haven’t done that enough. Brendan Donovan has a leadoff onbase percentage of .296, and Masyn Wynn is even worse at .268.

I don’t know what the solution is. Donovan hasn’t been as effective as a leadoff hitter in 2024 but is thriving at other spots in the lineup. This also applies to Winn. When batting in the 5-6-7 spots this season Donovan has a .333 average and .893 OPS. When Winn hits eighth or ninth, he bats .394 with a .997 OPS.

I can’t pretend to understand the psychology of a hitter based on where he’s installed in the lineup, but Donovan and Winn are well below average as leadoff men and are outstanding when they’re located elsewhere.

Donovan prioritized walk rate and OBP earlier in his career but has evolved into a more power-oriented approach. Winn is relatively new to the leadoff position and maybe he’ll get results there if we give it time. But Winn supplied a low .233 average and .266 OBP when batting leadoff in June. That won’t do.

Marmol should try Lars Nootbaar at No. 1 when the outfielder returns from his injury-rehab assignment. In 396 plate appearances at leadoff across 2022 and 2023, Nootbaar posted a high walk rate (12.6%) with a .360 onbase percentage and .461 slug. In the past Noot has given the Cardinals a high OBP and real power danger in the leadoff hole. I suppose Tommy Edman can get a shot at No. 1 when he’s activated from the IL later this month. But over the past three seasons Edman had a poor 6% walk rate and an inadequate OBP (.308) when batting leadoff.

2. If Nolan Gorman: stay or go?

Gorman had a brutal June, batting .141 with a .229 slugging percentage and 39.5 percent strikeout rate. Gorman had a terrific May, but his other two months have been horrendous. He’s making too many outs. He’s whiffing too many times. His defense has taken a below-average turn.

Would it help Gorman to exhale and start fresh with a rejuvenating stay in Triple A Memphis? Here’s the thing: it’s easy to say YES to that. But we saw a similar Gorman swoon last year, and Gorman was even more lost at the plate than he is now. So what happened? The Cardinals stayed with Gorman and responded by slugging .503, and posting a .340 OBP over the final three months, raising his slug to a handsome .478 by the end of the 2023 season.

I’d be surprised if the Cardinals demote Gorman to Memphis. But if his frightful woes continue, the Cardinals can’t afford to go on like this all season. When Nootbaar returns, they could easily put him in left field and move Donovan to second base. And Edman can be used at 2B as well.

It’s an understatement to say that a Gorman revival is absolutely necessary for the Cardinals to relaunch offensively. But what is the best way to get him amped up and reloaded with power? Stay or go? Good question. The ultimate fate of the St. Louis offense could depend on the answer.

3. Is there a fountain of youth?

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the fountain thing is a myth. So they’ll keep riding with aging but declining stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Before this year, Arenado and Goldschmidt had never slugged below .400 in a season during a combined 26 years in the big leagues. Goldy had never slugged less than .447 in a season. As a rookie Arenado slugged .405, but after that he never dipped under .459 in full-season slug.

In 2024, both guys are slugging below .400 in the same season. After their awesome 2022 seasons, what were the odds of seeing both of them power down so dramatically in ‘24?

Goldy is slugging a career-low .361 and is on pace to have the worst slug, worst onbase percentage (.294) and OPS (.655) of his career.

Arenado is on pace to have his worst slugging percentage (.378) and lowest OPS (.692) in a season.

Since the Cardinals just entered the second half of their schedule, we can do some simple math and project that Goldschmidt and Arenado will combine for 36 home runs in 2024. That’s after they combined for 65 HRs in 2021, 65 again in ‘22, and 51 bombs last season.

Before 2024, Goldschmidt had a career 13 percent walk rate and 22.3 percent strikeout rate. This year, both plate-discipline metrics have gone the wrong way; right now Goldy has the lowest walk rate of his career (8.3%) and the highest strikeout rate (29%) since being phased in as an inexperienced rookie with Arizona in 2011.

Given those numbers, it doesn’t seem wise to position Goldy second in the lineup. He has a .279 OBP there, and only 15 big-league hitters have made more outs than Goldschmidt in 2024. That can’t be overlooked.

The first baseman is slightly above average as a No. 3 hitter, but the stats are nothing grand. Goldy hasn’t done well as a cleanup hitter.

Perhaps Oli Marmol should give Goldschmidt another turn at the No. 5 spot. This is small-sample theater material, but in 35 plate appearances as the fifth hitter this season, Goldschmidt has a .344 average, .400 OBP and .500 slug.

More days off could help Goldschmidt, and the Cardinals can deploy Alec Burleson, Matt Carpenter or Brendan Donovan at first base.

As for Arenado, well, I don’t know where it’s best to hit him. Marmol sparked Arenado by batting him fifth in recent weeks, and the move led to a .500 slugging percentage … but in only 62 plate appearances.

I don’t have a good answer here. Goldy turns 37 late in the season and Arenado is an “old” 33. It’s easy to say “trade” one or both of them but that isn’t realistic, given their fading performances.

This is the final year of Goldy’s contract with the Cardinals. Arenado has $63 million (guaranteed) remaining between now and when contract expires at the end of the 2027 season.

4. OK, definitely adjust the lineup.

Let’s continue with the previous ribbons of thought. It’s probably time to move Goldy and Arenado to the 5th and 6th spots … or maybe even the 6th and 7th slots.

Marmol has several options to fill the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 lineup slots. There are alternatives.

Willson Contreras has been far above league average offensively when utilized as the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 5 hitter. He can be moved around; nothing bothers him because his ego doesn’t demand to hit in a certain spot. Willy is comfortable hitting anywhere. He’s a true team player.

Donovan and Burleson carried the offense in June, and putting them in No. 3 and No. 4 spots is something to think about. When Winn regroups from a below-average June, he could factor into the middle-order lineup as part of Marmol’s tinkering. That goes for Nootbaar, but his skill set makes him an obvious choice to bat leadoff.

I’m getting dizzy. Here’s the dang problem: there are no sure-fire solutions, so it leaves me wandering around with no particular place to go in the quest to locate the perfect panacea. But I’ll keep swinging.

5. Give more time to hot bats and positive-trending players. 

In his last 10 games, Matt Carpenter batted .385 with a .433 onbase percentage and .462 slug. He’s looked good at the plate. In his last 11 games, shortstop Brandon Crawford has a .343 OBP and .434 slug. These are two savvy, intelligent and respected players. As long as they’re taking quality at-bats, you might as well get them busier. As a bonus, Crawford can handle third base just fine.

6. At some point, Jordan Walker must reenter the picture.

I don’t know when. I don’t know what we have to see in him to campaign for a promotion to the majors. After a brief power surge, Walker has gone 0 for 12 with three strikeouts in his last three games. This does not inspire confidence. Would the Cardinals dare put Walker’s name out there as a potential trade piece that could likely command a nice return?

Probably not; it’s way too risky given the organization’s pattern of miscalculations with their outfielders. But Walker really needs to pull it together. If he gets his stroke going, the Cardinals will have to turn to him. This is a baffling situation. In the final two months of his 2024 rookie season, Walker batted .287 with a .356 OBP and .470 slug. Where did that swing go? How did he lose that? How can he find it? Is there a swing-doctor specialist in the house?

7. More and more, it appears that a trade is necessary.

Everyone who cares about the Cardinals will be looking to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to strengthen his roster before the July 30 trading deadline.

The shopping list almost certainly includes a starting pitcher. An above-average bullpen reinforcement would be a valuable pick up. The cost of pitching won’t be cheap.

But when the Cardinals move into the third week of July and are still straining offensively, how can Mozeliak disregard such a glaring problem?

Answer: he can’t. Oh, Mozeliak could make a counterintuitive move by going for a more established “name” starting pitcher and reliever to make the Cardinals more capable of preventing runs and winning low-scoring games. Perhaps that’s the play; make your team strengths even stronger instead of going for an average hitter that doesn’t move the needle all that much. But pitching tends to be expensive in the trade mart at this time of year.

To catch the Brewers, the Cardinals will have to cast a big net and catch an impact hitter. I could blindly throw some names around, but concocting fantasy trades ain’t my jam. It’s up to Mozeliak and staff to identify a good fit and go get the fella. As we move closer to the trading deadline, I’m sure there will be more clarity on supposedly “available” players. We shall revisit this.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

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