10 October 2024, Brandenburg, Lietzen: Northern lights glow in the night sky above a road in eastern … [+]
Did you miss one of the most impressive displays of the Northern Lights for 20 years on Oct. 11? Urgh. While everyone else is swapping images of the aurora borealis taken from their backyards during a severe G4 geomagnetic storm, you may be left with a feeling of annoyance and embarrassment — and possibly also guilt if your kids could have had a once-in-a-lifetime experience.
With the sun on the cusp of a very intense “solar maximum,” it’s worth preparing for something similar to the display on May 10-11 and Oct. 10-11 through 2024 and into 2025 and possibly even 2026.
Here’s why you may have missed it all — and how to maximize your chances of seeing the next big display.
You Went To Bed Too Early
This is a classic rookie error. You can sleep, or you can see the Northern Lights. Generally, not both. Geomagnetic activity occurs in bursts and is largely unpredictable. It is rarely convenient. It doesn’t care if you have slept/need to sleep soon. It can occur at any time of night and last for a few minutes or hours. If you must sleep, set an alarm for every hour during a night of a G4 or G5 forecast and head outside — you may see a spectacular outburst. Or you may not.
This is what a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm looks like through thick cloud.
You Had A Cloudy Sky
Sadly, this is what I had to contend with on Oct. 10-11. I could see tantalizing glimpses of a deep red sky between cracks in cloud cover where I was. The forecast worsened as the night progressed. What could I do about that? Not much. With an accurate forecast, I could have driven for about 90 minutes to find a clear sky.
Aurora-hunting (and eclipse-chasing) is easy in retrospect, but there is one rule that always applies: you have to take risks — and that means being prepared to make big efforts and return disappointed. All of this applies even if you travel to Iceland or Alaska, where auroras occur much more frequently.
You Lack Patience (And Luck)
Patience is the world’s rarest commodity. Did you see the commotion online about the aurora, go outside for five minutes, then abandon the search? That could be why you missed them.
If you have feelings of frustration and anger about missing the aurora then you’re probably not the ideal aurora hunter.
What is crucial is the ability to stay focused and understand that aurora is unpredictable and fleeting and that searches often end in disappointment. You can get lucky, or you can expend a lot of effort and not get rewarded.
A man takes a photo of the aurora with a smartphone. It’s a useful tool for confirming faint aurora. … [+]
You Didn’t Take A Photo
Faint aurora can only be picked up by camera. Plus, almost all of the best images you’ve seen of the aurora last night were edited, with the saturation and vibrancy of their colors enhanced.
Either way, if auroras are rumored to be in your area, take images of the sky — the northern sky, to be exact — to check for their presence. Greenish aurora can often occur as a greyish cloudy-like blur in the distance. Your smartphone’s camera can see a lot better than your eyes!
The Media Cries Wolf
Journalists are now always crying wolf about the aurora, which makes people doubt what they read. That could be why you saw some commotion online but ignored it.
Two things are going on with articles post-May 10’s spectacular aurora display — and this now goes double in the wake of the arguably even stronger Oct. 10 display.
- News journalists who know nothing about astronomy and have never even seen the aurora — let alone conducted their own hunt — are writing clickbait articles called things like “Northern Lights Tonight.” They publish in swarms. There’s often no problem with the accuracy of the articles, but for most people, they don’t need to exist; almost everyone reading wants to know only about “the big one,” not a potential display only visible along the U.S.-Canada border. If you’ve read one of these articles and been disappointed, you’ll know what I mean. This makes it hard to know who to trust online.
Solution: Follow my page, check NOAA’s aurora view line, NOAA’s 30-minute forecast and its X account, where the latest updates are posted.
- Forecasting the Northern Lights is actually very difficult, with G3 storms (only seen in the extreme north in the U.S.) sometimes morphing into G4 storms (which can sometimes be seen in southern U.S. states) and G4 storms very occasionally becoming G5 (global), which lets some of the new wave of aurora journalists off the hook.
Solution: if you live anywhere except northern-tier U.S. states, ignore any mention of G1, G2 and G3 geomagnetic storms. Follow NOAA’s aurora view line, its 30-minute forecast and its X account, and only pay attention when a G4 (Intense) geomagnetic storm is forecast. That’s very rarely.
Northern lights (Aurora Borealis) illuminate the sky over Washington DC because of the solar storm … [+]
You Live In A Light-Polluted City
More than 80% of people worldwide live under light-polluted skies, with artificial light increasing by at least 49% globally in just the last 25 years, according to recent research.
Sadly, the aurora is highly susceptible to light pollution. It’s possible to walk through the streets of a light-polluted city and not notice a century-level display of aurora above your head. Light pollution is that bad. All you can do is choose your moment to escape to dark country skies.
The best locations will be anywhere that looks dark on a light pollution map, preferably one that doesn’t have an urban area to the north, which could light up the night sky in the exact position the aurora is most likely to appear. Other good options include an International Dark Sky Place (U.S./worldwide), a Dark-Sky Preserve (Canada) and a Starlight Reserve (Spain).
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.