One of the big questions facing the Buffalo Sabres heading into the 2024-25 season was what version of Dylan Cozens they would see.
Was Cozens going to rebound back to the 2022-23 version of himself, the one who earned a seven-year, $49.7 million contract extension with a breakout season? Or would he pick up where he left off in 2023-24 as a shell of that up-and-coming star?
While Cozens has shown glimpses of that promise — including in a 7-1 win over the New York Islanders on Monday to end a 13-game losing skid — he has yet to rebound through 35 games. And that’s troubling for a team that bet on rebounds from their core players to help fuel a turnaround after a disappointing last season.
While the Sabres’ disastrous start doesn’t fall solely on Cozen’s shoulders, he was expected to help this team break through and push forward. Instead, he is sinking with the rest of the group. That is starting to create questions in Buffalo — including what has gone wrong for Cozens over the last couple of seasons and what a path forward might look like.
On Monday night, Cozen scored two points to help the Sabres break their 13-game winless streak. Buffalo controlled play in his minutes, with a 68 percent expected goal rate and a 3-0 scoring edge at five-on-five. That added up to a season-high 4.47 Game Score.
But that caliber of performance has been the exception, not the rule, so far this season. Progression may not be a straight line, but Cozens hasn’t come close to the bar he set for himself in 2022-23.
In 2022-23, he impressed with 31 goals and 68 points in 81 games. The Sabres fell below breaking even with a 48.25 percent expected goal rate in his minutes, but it wasn’t because of his offense. Cozens made the Sabres a more dangerous scoring threat and emerged as a budding star in transition, with one of the highest controlled entry rates in the league, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking at AllThreeZones. That outweighed some of the defensive concerns, which are common for young players and were a problem across the board in Buffalo.
That breakout year was enough for Cozens to make the cut for the Player Tiers in 2023 when a panel of experts and insiders advocated for his inclusion. At the time, he needed to diversify his offense and work on his two-way game to move up to All-Star territory. Fast forward almost a season and a half later, and that same critique remains. The pressure is rising for him to get there as the Sabres continue to spin their wheels outside the playoff picture.
In all situations, his scoring has taken a real hit over the last couple of seasons. Cozens went from scoring at a rate of 3.05 points per 60, the fourth-best in Buffalo in 2022-23 behind only their top line, to 1.67. And for the first time in his NHL career, he isn’t just a negative defensively relative to his teammates — he’s a drag on their offensive creation as well.
Some of those two-way dips stem from his play in transition. Over the last couple of seasons, Cozens has helped out more in his own zone with puck retrievals and zone exits. That was something this roster craved after 2022-23.
But his puck-moving play has declined elsewhere after that was such a difference-maker in his breakout year. According to AllThreeZones, Cozens’ controlled entry rate dropped from 15.6 per 60 in 2022-23 to 9.7 this season. Even with the caveat of this year being a more limited sample, which can amplify results, it’s still an eye-catching difference — and one that rates really poorly in Buffalo after being one of the better puck transporters a couple of seasons ago. It’s not just the volume of entries that has dropped, but his efficiency, with his carry-in percentage decreasing from 62.6 to 53.3 since 2022-23.
Too often this year, his entry attempts are broken up at the blue line, forcing the Sabres to regroup. He is also giving away the puck much more on both ends of the ice.
And while Cozens’ average skating speed hasn’t changed too drastically over the years, according to NHL Edge data, he isn’t bursting up the ice at a high pace as frequently, either. That may be tied to the fact that he isn’t forcing as many takeaways this season.
All of that has contributed to Cozens creating way fewer rush shots over the last two seasons. And unlike seasons past, the team doesn’t have another middle-six center who can excel in transition, like Casey Mittelstadt. That leaves the team without as many reliable rush threats behind Tage Thompson on the first line.
Via AllThreeZones
Not only has Cozens failed to build on his rush-based attack, he still hasn’t added enough dimension elsewhere in the offensive zone. One of the biggest criticisms around the Sabres’ 2022-23 offense was that the team relied too heavily on scoring in transition and didn’t have a strong enough forecheck. Cozens was a solid forechecker then, with room for improvement, but he hasn’t progressed. He isn’t winning board battles often enough or making key plays to extend the Sabres’ zone time. That forces his team to play defense more often, which exposes another weakness.
The Sabres are giving up 0.19 more expected goals per 60 with Cozens on the ice relative to the rest of the team, which is the third-worst in Buffalo to only Jack Quinn and Peyton Krebs. The team is also giving up a higher goal rate with Cozens deployed.
Buffalo’s system and their blue line’s strength seem to be putting extra strain on their centers. And Cozens doesn’t seem up to the task in this environment. He doesn’t always look committed enough to playing a 200-foot game and sometimes seems outright overwhelmed by it.
The coaches have tried shifting him to the wing on some nights to limit his defensive workload and put him in a position to thrive offensively (he excelled on the wing at the World Championship last summer). But that hasn’t been enough to elevate his game, either.
After a relatively quiet offseason, the Sabres aren’t a deep enough team to mask Cozens’ struggles. Instead, his shortcomings are that much more exposed on most nights. That makes the road forward all the more difficult for someone expected to be a key part of their future.
The Sabres took a risk when they extended Cozens long-term back in 2022-23, considering how little NHL experience he had at the time of the signing. But it seemed like a measured risk with a high reward, considering his trajectory and league trends toward more significant second contracts. By signing him sooner than later, the team bet on his prime years versus a bridge deal that could burn the team if his value skyrocketed (see: Rasmus Dahlin’s $11 million cap hit). Cozens was the play-driving center this team needed and looked like a pivotal part of their future.
At this point, he just hasn’t lived up to the hype. Cozens doesn’t look like a $7.1 million or a true 2C for a team that wants to return to the playoff picture. But there are still glimpses of the player who earned that long-term extension.
Take his game against the Islanders on Monday, when he put in the work down low to set up Jack Quinn for the team’s fifth goal.
Or his goal against Vancouver earlier this season, when he kept the play in the offensive zone and scored off the cycle.
And while his rush game isn’t near the levels of his 2022-23, it still comes through at key times, like against Montreal earlier this month when the team needed a spark while trailing 2-0.
Can those glimpses become the norm again in Buffalo, or does the team need to cut its losses?
There is an argument for trading Cozens. The Sabres may want to shed his $7.1 million contract before his value plummets even more.
Teams will jump at the chance to add him, even with his flaws and contract situation. Toronto, Calgary, Carolina, Nashville and Winnipeg, among others, all have gaps down the middle of the ice. Those teams may feel investing in a 23-year-old with upside is the better bet than a rental veteran at the deadline — just look at how expensive centers were at the last deadline.
As much as management can try to leverage that interest for a higher return, the Sabres would still be selling low. It may reek of desperation, which opposing general managers can exploit. Sticking with the status quo won’t do the team any favors, but rush decisions can be costly — especially if the Sabres once again move the best player in the deal. Look at how that worked out with the Jack Eichel trade and Sam Reinhart deal; both players have Stanley Cups, and the Sabres still aren’t near the playoff picture. Plus, moving Cozens could have a negative impact on the rest of the team, especially if it forces someone like Jiri Kulich into a role out of his depth too soon into his career.
It’s possible Cozens isn’t in the right environment for his skill set, and the team can’t overhaul its entire style for one player. But he isn’t the only player who has struggled over the last two seasons, and this team hasn’t done everything to channel his best strengths, either.
Fixing the Sabres’ play on the man advantage would be a start since power-play production can boost confidence and trickle into five-on-five play. But there are adjustments worth considering at five-on-five, too.
Unless Monday night was the sign of a turnaround from Quinn and Cozens, who have shown strong chemistry in the past, the two should be separated again. The Sabres have a 40 percent expected goal rate in their minutes and are getting outscored 7-12. The focus should be getting these two going separately before reuniting them.
Cozens hasn’t exactly thrived without Quinn, either. If anything, the team is better on most nights when both are on the bench. Maybe the answer isn’t within the organization. Management should look for a top-six winger outside the organization, which would likely help slot the rest of their forward depth into more fitting roles. The ideal target would be a left-handed shooter for Cozens. Perhaps that player should bring some hard skill into the mix and a tenacious forecheck so Cozens can stop getting away from his strengths by playing an overly physical game. While that could wait until the offseason, the team should try to get back on track as soon as possible — even if the playoffs are a long shot this year.
Management could also look for right-handed defensemen to improve the blue line so the system isn’t as taxing on their centers. There are trade assets not named Cozens in Buffalo that can be used to make upgrades via trade. If management isn’t inclined to make big swings, the coaches may have to consider making tactical changes to maximize the core group management bet on this past season.
A 23-year-old right-handed center has value. But the Sabres need that value to start shining in Buffalo.
The further removed Cozens gets from his 2022-23 breakout season, the more that will look like the outlier in his career. Still, it’s in the Sabres’ best interest to get their up-and-coming star back on track instead of moving him too soon and repeating the pattern that has burned them time and time again.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, NHL Edge, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)