Bills at Chiefs: How to watch, odds, expert picks with Kansas City 2-point favorites in AFC Championship

The Athletic has live coverage of Bills vs Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

The AFC Championship game is a matchup of one of the current football era’s most high-stakes rivalries. The Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat takes its next step, while the Buffalo Bills are looking to snatch that dream away and get revenge on the team that eliminated them from the playoffs three times in the past four seasons. The only team that handed Kansas City a true loss this season? That would be Buffalo.

The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites, and the line has since moved a half-point in their favor. Our experts are evenly split in who they’re picking. For casual fans — or fans of the WAG beat (wives and girlfriends) — it’s coming to be known as the “Taylor Swift-Hailee Steinfeld Bowl.” In the words of Swift herself: Let’s freakin’ go.

How to watch Bills at Chiefs

The Chiefs are back in the AFC Championship for the seventh year in a row. Inevitable? Implausible? Incredible? All terms used to describe the Chiefs’ historic dominance as they host their sixth edition of what Fox Sports Nick Wright called the “Arrowhead Invitational.” All season, the Chiefs have gotten the side-eye from analysts and football fans alike as they ground their way to win after one-score win. Their two biggest stars, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, looked sluggish to start the season.

Not anymore. In the six games leading up to the Chief’s divisional win against Houston, Mahomes generated 16 total touchdowns without committing a turnover, notching a passer rating of 115.8. Against the Texans, Kelce was activated with seven catches on eight targets with 117 yards and a touchdown. This wasn’t just a good game; it was history-making: According to The Athletic’s Nate Taylor and RJ Kraft, “This was [Kelce’s] ninth career playoff game with at least 100 receiving yards, which is the most in NFL history — breaking a tie with Pro Football Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice.”

And yet it was, as it has been all season, the Chiefs defense that gave Kansas City their foundation. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad sacked C.J. Stroud eight times, with defensive end George Karlaftis leading with three.

Of course, defending against the Bills and Josh Allen, presumptive regular-season MVP, is a whole different ballgame, excuse the pun. The Bills fought tooth and nail in snow and wind to get past the Ravens, winning 27-25 after Mark Andrews dropped a game-tying two-point conversion with 1:33 left in the game on Sunday night.

It wasn’t a flashy game by Buffalo, but they didn’t need it to be — their ability to adapt on the fly, not make mistakes and grind to the end was all that mattered. Allen was 16-of-22 with 127 yards, two rushing touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Bills were outgained by nearly 150 yards, but a conservative game plan in the second half proved successful against a Ravens team that had three turnovers. Khalil Shakir had six catches on seven targets for 67 receiving yards. In the backfield, James Cook led with another 67 yards on 17 carries.

Pick: It pains me to say, but: Chiefs again. It’s going to be a tough out for the Bills. Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs, and although the Bills had the Chiefs number in Week 11, it’s hard to beat a team twice. That 30-21 victory came against a different Chiefs team that was lacking Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, Charles Omenihu, Jaylen Watson and Harrison Butker. DeAndre Hopkins was a newer addition, and neither Kelce nor Mahomes were in playoff form. Playoff KC is a monster indeed.

Injuries

Bills:

Chiefs

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks

Picks record

Rankings	Win %	Record
1. Josh Kendall	71%	197-80-0
2. Larry Holder	70%	195-85-0
3. Austin Mock	70%	177-77-0
4. Tashan Reed	69%	194-88-0
5. Ben Standig	67%	165-83-0
6. Chad Graff	64%	150-86-0
7. Nick Kosmider	62%	166-100-0
8. Josiah Turner	61%	134-84-0
9. Zac Jackson	59%	114-79-0