Surprisingly, one issue that didn’t come up was whether Montenegro would partner with the far right if he won the election but failed to secure a governing majority. Those fears abounded last year, but voters now appear satisfied the center-right politician can be trusted to keep the ultranationalists out of his executive.
Unclear outlook
If Montenegro can secure the largest share of the votes on Sunday, he’ll be called on to form a government. But if a majority of the fractured parliament’s lawmakers band together to reject his governing program, he can be stopped from assuming office.
Last year, Santos opted for constructive collaboration and ordered his Socialist Party to abstain in critical votes, which enabled Montenegro to both form a minority government and, later, pass a crucial budget bill. But relations between the two main parties have soured in the wake of the failed confidence vote, and it’s unclear if the center left will come to the center right’s rescue once more.
If Montenegro’s government does get shot down by the parliament, Santos will be called on to try his luck — but he’d be similarly rejected by center-right lawmakers, leaving the country in limbo. Portugal’s constitution doesn’t set a deadline for the formation of a new government, nor does it include any clause that would force the dissolution of parliament if lawmakers fail to confirm a new prime minister.
The constitution does, however, prohibit snap elections within six months of the vote and during the final six months of a presidential term. Given that President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term concludes in March 2026, the earliest a fresh national election could be held is late spring of next year.
Never stop voting
If Portugal’s politicians are unable to reach a compromise, they could leave the country with Montenegro leading a caretaker government for the foreseeable future.
But political stagnation won’t relieve citizens of their electoral duties anytime soon. This fall, Portuguese voters will be summoned back to the polls to take part in nationwide local elections. In January, they’ll be called upon to choose de Sousa’s successor.
And if consensus proves impossible on Sunday, they may well be obliged to vote in a national election for the fourth time in four years, right around this time in 2026. Mark your calendars …