The long-feared enrollment cliff—the result of a projected decrease in high school graduates—is no longer a distant threat. It’s here. Across the United States, colleges and universities are grappling with declining student numbers, leading to program closures and escalating layoffs. For many faculty and staff members, such employment changes come without warning and lack transparency, leaving them scrambling to adapt.
I’ve seen this firsthand. During my time as a tenured professor of sociology and criminal justice at a small Midwestern liberal arts college, the institution underwent two rounds of layoffs and a reduction in its portfolio of majors. Faculty members received no raises and were continually assigned additional administrative tasks due to personnel reductions. My frustration peaked when I received tenure without a salary increase. That led to my decision to leave the university and accept a job outside higher education. Several months after my departure, the college announced a $5 million budget deficit and eliminated more than 20 positions.
I am now writing this piece to help other faculty and staff members recognize the signs of their own institution’s instability and transition out of it before their positions are abruptly cut. How can you tell if your college or university is gearing up for layoffs and what can you do to safeguard your career? Here are some key indicators and actionable steps to consider.
5 Red Flags
First, you should try to continually read the landscape and be aware of some of the following warning signs that your institution is headed into difficult terrain.
- Expanding freezes on hiring, raises or promotions. These are often early steps in budget-cutting processes. Look for announcements about “strategic hiring” or “prioritization,” which may be euphemisms for selective freezes.
Where to find information:
- Internal memos and announcements
- Faculty Senate or union communications
- Budget presentations to governing boards (often public for state institutions)
Additional insight: Compare your institution’s salary increases to inflation rates and peer institutions. Consistently falling behind may indicate financial strain.
- Growing deficits in financial reports. These are a crucial indicator of an institution’s increasing financial instability. The 990 tax form, available through the IRS website or nonprofit databases like GuideStar, provides detailed financial information. Look for trends in revenue, expenses and net assets over several years. Increasing deficits or a consistent decline in net assets spell trouble ahead.
Where to find information:
- IRS website
- GuideStar
- Your institution’s annual financial reports (usually available on its website)
Additional insight: Compare your institution’s financial ratios—such as its primary reserve ratio, viability ratio and the like—to industry benchmarks that the annual NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments provides.
- Higher turnover in upper administration. Frequent changes in leadership often signal instability. Pay attention not only to who is leaving the institution but also to the backgrounds of new hires. Administrators with business or “turnaround” experience may have been brought in to implement cost-cutting measures.
Where to find information:
- University press releases and news
- Higher education news sources, such as Inside Higher Ed and other publications
- LinkedIn profiles of administrators
Additional insight: Look for patterns in the types of positions being filled or left vacant. A trend toward hiring more financial or operational roles over academic leadership roles could indicate a focus on cost-cutting.
- Falling enrollment. Tuition is a key driver of university finances, so look at both overall enrollment numbers and trends as well as those in specific programs or departments. A decline in high-revenue programs, such as those for international and graduate students, can have a disproportionate impact on finances.
Where to find information:
Additional insight: Pay attention to demographic trends in your region, as the enrollment cliff varies by region. The enrollment cliff is expected to hit the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States hardest, with states like Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont and Wisconsin projected to see sharp declines in college-age population.
- Increasing exodus of top faculty and staff members. When renowned faculty or top administrators leave without being replaced, it can indicate budget constraints or a loss of confidence in the institution’s future. Also pay attention to whether the positions that the departing faculty members held remain tenure-track or have been converted to adjunct jobs.
Where to find information:
- Department websites and faculty directories
- Academic job boards (to see if positions are being advertised)
- Professional association newsletters in your field
Additional insight: Network with colleagues at other institutions to gauge if an unusual number of job seekers from your college or university are on the market.
Proactive Steps to Take
So once you’ve read the landscape, how can you protect yourself in what appears to be a precarious environment? I suggest you consider the following positive steps.
Diversify your professional portfolio. You should continue to work to develop skills that are valuable both inside and outside academia, especially in areas such as:
- Project management. All types of sectors and industries highly value such skills. Government agencies and nonprofits rely on people with experience in project management to oversee complex, multistakeholder initiatives, ensuring efficient use of public funds and timely delivery of results. Private sector companies—particularly those in industries like technology, construction and consulting—equally prize professionals who can lead cross-functional teams and drive projects to successful completion.
- Data analysis and visualization. These capabilities are also increasingly crucial in job fields across the board. Government agencies leverage them in policy analysis and program evaluation. Similarly, businesses in various industries, from marketing to finance, seek professionals who can extract and communicate insights from large datasets. Tech companies, market research firms and financial institutions especially value these skills.
- Grant writing and fundraising. In the public and nonprofit spheres, such experience is essential for securing government grants, foundation support and private donations. Private sector organizations, such as start-ups and companies seeking venture capital or government contracts, also value this expertise when it comes to business development, proposal writing and investor relations roles.
- Online teaching and instructional design. In the public sector, these skills are crucial for developing effective elearning programs in academe and government training initiatives. Private sector corporate training and elearning fields also need professionals who can design engaging online courses for employee development and customer education.
Helpful resources include:
Further expand your network and seek advice. Build a robust professional network both within and outside academia. Attend industry conferences, join professional associations and engage with alumni networks.
Helpful resources include:
- Academic Twitter (#AcademicTwitter)
- ResearchGate or Academia.edu for academic networking
- LinkedIn for broader professional networking
- Informational interviews with professionals in fields of interest
Stay informed and updated. Regularly review your institution’s strategic plan, board minutes and financial reports. Keep abreast of trends in higher education funding and policy at the state and national level.
Helpful resources include:
- Various media outlets, such as Inside Higher Ed and others
- Your state’s higher education coordinating board reports.
Explore further education or certification. Identify skills gaps in your desired career path and pursue relevant certifications or degrees. Consider:
- Mini-M.B.A.s for academics
- Coding boot camps
- Industry-specific certifications
- Additional graduate degrees in high-demand fields
- Coursera or edX for online courses and certifications
- Professional association certification programs
- Local community colleges for practical skills training
I also recommend that you:
Develop a strong online presence. Create a professional website, maintain an active LinkedIn profile and consider starting a blog or podcast in your area of expertise. Such efforts can open up opportunities for consulting, speaking engagements or alternative academic careers.
Explore alt-ac careers. Consider roles in academic administration, research management, educational technology or university advancement. These positions often offer more stability and can leverage your academic background.
Build financial resilience. Create an emergency fund, diversify your income streams through activities like consulting and freelance writing, and consider your options for geographic mobility. This financial cushion can provide peace of mind and flexibility in uncertain times.
In sum, remember that the skills developed in academia—critical thinking, research, communication and project management—are highly valuable in many sectors. By staying vigilant to institutional changes, proactively developing your skills and maintaining a broad professional network, you can navigate the evolving landscape of higher education and build a resilient long-term career.